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Statistical analyzes of fires in the natural environment during the period 2008 - 2017 in the South Bohemian Region
ŠVEHLA, Oto
The aim of the work was to perform a statistical analisys of fires in the declared II. the degree of fire alarm (based on selected parameters "damage", "protected value", "direct cost") and in carrying out a systematic analisys of the economic aspects of fire exits in declared II. fire alarm level. The first objective (statistical analisys) was fulfilled by the verification of partial hypotheses H21 to H24, which were created by dividing the H2 hypothesis (the division of the H2 hypothesis into partial hypotheses was generated by defining the current state of the solved problem). The second objective (systemic analisys of economic aspects) was fulfilled by the verification of the H1 hypothesis, on the basis of the algorithm of economic aspects of exits to the outdoor fires, it was possible to quantify the direct exit costs. The hypotheses and their verification were as follows: H1: On the basis of equipment, deployment of forces and means at the exit of the unit, it will be possible to develop a table algorithm for calculating the detailed price of exit costs The assumption of the hypothesis can be illustrated by the relationship for the calculation of direct costs: Xpn =((V Sv)/100) Xphm+(Sm Mth) Xphm+(Xtc Xo)Xpm H2: The selected unit exit parameters will be regression in the selected period and correlation relationship H21 Regression and correlation results can be expected by examining the amount of damage related to individual fires in the period under review, indicating a significant role of lower and medium damage (accepting the hypothesis as evidenced by the shape of the regression line) H22 Investigating the values of values saved in relation to individual fires a regression and correlation result can be expected in the period under review, indicating a significant role of the lower and middle value saved (the hypothesis is supported by the shape of the regression line) H23 Regression and correlation results can be expected by examining the amount of direct costs in relation to individual fires in the period under review, indicating a significant role for direct costs of lower and medium costs (hypothesis assumed by the shape of the regression line) H24 Due to the choice of only three parameters of the examined outdoor fires regression and correlation results between pairs of statistical traits can be expected only at the level of very weak positive or negative correlation in the monitored period (acceptance of the hypothesis is evidenced by the shape of the regression line (the hypothesis is confirmed by defining weak positive and negative correlations, often the results were close to non-correlation) The thesis has theoretical benefits (eg operability of two-dimensional regression and correlations made without scaling and scaling) and practical (defining the formula for calculating direct costs). It was also proposed to continue with follow-up research - to use homogenized sets of fires (harvesting fire, harvested field fires, fodder fires and forest fires) for research, eg on a nationwide scale.
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